With Scotland now confirmed to be the Republic of Ireland WNT opponents on Tuesday, here is the full breakdown of how the European play-off finals work.
“Surely if they win they are through, right?”
Yes and No, they do indeed have to beat the Scots on Tuesday to be one of three play-off winners, but victory does not mean they have a place at next year’s World Cup.
Only the top two ranked teams of the three winners will get an automatic spot in the competition, with the third having to play in a ten team inter-confederations tournament held in New Zealand in February.
“How does that work?”
To rank the three play-off winners, group results plus the result of the second round of the play-offs are combined.
Some groups had five teams and others had six, so any group matches against the teams who finished sixth are discounted. The results from the first round of the play-offs are also discounted.
Once the points are tallied up, the top two qualify and the third-placed winner goes to New Zealand to play one or two games, depending on a draw.
Wins after extra-time on Tuesday night are worth three points, but victories on penalties are counted as draws and worth only a single point in the context of rankings.
“This makes absolutely no sense”
Basically Ireland need a win on Tuesday, them hope results elsewhere work in their favour, Switzerland are on 19 points, Iceland 18 with Ireland on 17.
Should both of them slip up against Wales and Portugal respectively, Ireland will make the World Cup.
Three points Tuesday puts Ireland on 20, should Iceland win via a penalty shootout they would only get a single point, finishing third in the table on 19 points.
The same can be said for Switzerland, the same result would have them on 20 points, it then goes to goal difference again, based on results in the group phase and play-offs then to goals scored, away goals scored, etc. Ireland are currently level on goal difference with Iceland, three clear of Switzerland, and lead the way on goals scored by one.
Kicking off two hours later they will know exactly what is needed, Portugal claimed a huge scalp beating Belgium in the first round, if they did it again it would, move them to 19 points, with a win needed before a shootout.
However, if Ireland need a shootout to decide the tie, they would remain in third, with Portugal booking a ticket to New Zealand.
In short, a win is needed before peno’s and pray that the two other ties work in Ireland’s favour, otherwise we need to advance via the Inter-confederations tournament, consisting of nine other nations three places are on offer to make the World Cup, Ireland ranked 26th in the world would be the highest ranked team, the rest being Chinese Taipei (38), Chile (39), Thailand (41), Papua New Guinea (49), Paraguay (51), Haiti (56), Panama (57), Cameroon (59) and Senegal (84).
Diarmuid Kearney
Diarmuid Kearney is a freelance Sports Journalist based in Co Kerry. He has more than 5 years experience covering domestic and international soccer for different media organisations, while also working for local and national print and digital organisations covering GAA.